US-Iran war: Brent crude prices have jumped sharply by over 60% since the beginning of the US–Iran–Israel conflict, climbing to around $112 per barrel on Monday from nearly $70 per barrel at the start of the conflict, amid significant disruptions in global energy supply.

In the past 30 days alone, crude oil prices have risen by about 56%, reflecting the severity of the ongoing supply shock.

On Monday, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 52 cents to $98.75 per barrel, building on a 2.27% gain in the previous session.

Back home, crude oil prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained in a positive trajectory, up 1.12% at ₹9,360 per barrel.

Why are crude oil prices rising?

The surge in oil prices is driven by escalating tensions in West Asia, which have disrupted critical supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—a key conduit for global crude trade.

The crisis has also strained global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, further exacerbated by attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar. Strikes by Iran have damaged vital facilities, impacting nearly 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity.

On Saturday, US President Donald Trump warned that Iran’s power plants could be “obliterated” if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened within 48 hours—just a day after suggesting a possible de-escalation in the conflict, now in its fourth week.

In response, Iranian Minister Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated on X that key infrastructure and energy assets across the Middle East could face “irreversible destruction” if Iranian power plants were targeted.

Iraq has already declared force majeure across all oilfields operated by foreign companies, according to energy officials. Crude output at Basra Oil Company has been slashed to 900,000 barrels per day from 3.3 million bpd, as confirmed by Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani, according to a Reuters report.

What’s the near-term outlook for crude oil prices?

Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 average price forecast for Brent crude to $85 per barrel from $77, while also increasing its outlook for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $79 per barrel from $72.

The firm also expects Brent crude to average $110 per barrel in March and April, up from its earlier estimate of $98, as traders factor in a rising risk premium amid uncertainty over the duration of supply disruptions.

“The price when uncertainty ⁠peaks may be $135/bbl if the market required a risk premium to generate ​precautionary demand destruction offsetting supply destruction over six months in a risk scenario of 10 ​weeks of very low flows and (2 million barrels a day) of persistent production losses,” Goldman was quoted as saying by Reuters.

Meanwhile, Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities, believes that if tensions ease and Hormuz remains open, we could see a sharp reversal in energy and risk assets, but as long as the threat of disruption or closure persists, the risk premium can expand further.

Banerjee further noted that markets also need to closely monitor the Bab el-Mandeb choke point in the Red Sea, where any escalation involving the Houthis could amplify the shock.

On the technical outlook, Banerjee added, “Technically, Brent holding above $100 keeps the bullish structure intact, with $120 as a key resistance—above which prices could extend toward $130–135 in a continued escalation scenario.”

(With inputs from agencies)

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