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US-Iran war, crude oil prices to Q4 results FY26: Top five triggers that may dictate the Indian stock market this week

Indian stock market: Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 extended their decline for a second straight session on Friday, May 8, weighed down mainly by losses in banking and financial stocks.

The Sensex closed 516 points, or 0.66%, lower at 77,328.19, while the Nifty 50 slipped 151 points, or 0.62%, to settle at 24,176.15. Meanwhile, broader markets continued to outperform, with the BSE 150 Midcap index edging down 0.05% and the BSE 250 Smallcap index gaining 0.15%.

Stock Market Outlook next week

According to Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money, markets in the coming week are expected to remain highly volatile and largely driven by geopolitical headlines, with investor attention firmly focused on developments surrounding the ongoing US–Iran situation.

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“Key focus will remain on Iran’s response to the latest U.S. proposals, alongside further developments related to the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump stated that Washington expects a response from Iran later tonight regarding the proposal aimed at ending the conflict. Any signs of diplomatic progress could provide support to market sentiment and improve risk appetite, while any renewed military escalation or breakdown in negotiations may trigger a fresh risk-off move across global markets,” Ponmudi said.

Top 5 triggers for the Indian stock market

1] US-Iran war

According to reports, the Strait of Hormuz crisis escalated after Iran dismissed a US-backed draft resolution at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), describing it as “biased” and “politically driven”. Tehran argued that the proposal would fail to address the ongoing tensions in West Asia and accused Washington of using the UN to justify illegitimate actions.

In its statement, Iran asserted that resolving the crisis would require an end to the conflict, the removal of the maritime blockade on Iranian ports, and the restoration of normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian mission also urged UN member nations to oppose the draft resolution and refrain from backing it.

2] Crude oil prices

Brent crude futures surged as much as 3% on Friday after the U.S. and Iran exchanged air strikes a day earlier. However, prices later trimmed gains amid hopes of an extended lull in hostilities that had disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude settled at $101.29 per barrel, rising $1.23 or 1.23%, after touching gains of up to 3% during the session. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures ended at $95.42 per barrel, up 61 cents or 0.64%.

Despite Friday’s rebound, both benchmarks posted weekly losses of over 6%.

“Brent crude oil, currently trading in the $94–99 per barrel range, will remain a critical macro variable for market direction. A sustained decline in crude prices below the $90 mark, or meaningful progress towards de-escalation, could support relief rallies across risk assets,” Ponmudi said.

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3] Q4 results 2026

As the earnings season enters the fifth week, more than 400 companies will release their financial results for the quarter ended on March 21, 2026 in the coming week.

Canara Bank, Indian Hotels, Dixon Technologies, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Hindustan Aeronautics, IRFC, Hindustan Copper among marquee companies to declare their Q4 results 2026 next week.

4] Rupee vs US Dollar

The rupee weakened by 25 paise to settle provisionally at 94.47 against the US dollar on Friday, reversing gains from the previous two sessions amid renewed US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.

In the interbank forex market, the domestic currency opened at 94.58 per dollar but later slipped further to touch an intraday low of 94.68 against the greenback, marking a decline of 46 paise from its previous close.

By the end of the trading session, the rupee closed provisionally at 94.47 against the US dollar, down 25 paise from the previous close.

“Rupee traded weaker near 94.47, down around 0.23%, as weakness in domestic capital markets and cautious global sentiment kept pressure on the currency. While ongoing US–Iran proposal talks are supporting stability in broader markets, uncertainty around the final outcome continues to limit strong risk appetite. The rupee is expected to remain volatile within a range of 94.00–95.00, reacting closely to crude prices, FII flows, and geopolitical developments,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

5] FII outflows

Foreign institutional investors remained net sellers on May 8, offloading equities worth 4,111 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) emerged as net buyers with purchases amounting to 6,748 crore.

During the session, DIIs bought shares worth 21,297 crore and sold shares worth 14,549 crore. Meanwhile, FIIs purchased equities valued at 15,083 crore but sold shares worth 19,194 crore.

So far this year, FIIs have net sold equities worth 2.50 lakh crore, whereas DIIs have recorded net purchases of 3.11 lakh crore.

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“Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) started the week on a positive note with a net buy figure of 28.4 bn on Monday’s session after the outcome of the state assembly election. Strong performance by the ruling party at the centre led to positive sentiment. However, rising of geo-political tension and volatile crude price saw them turning net seller for the remaining four sessions of the week with net sell figure of 139.1 bn. Going forward, institutional activity is expected to be largely driven by global developments. In particular, the progress or deterioration of U.S.–Iran negotiations will remain a key factor to monitor, given its significant implications for geopolitical stability and the potential impact on crude oil price volatility,” said Pabitro Mukherjee, Associate Vice President- Research, Bajaj Broking.

Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.


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